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Episode 1465: Free Agency’s Second Wind
Date December 5, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller discuss a crowdsourced effort to help baseball writer Jen Ramos, then banter about hot stove terminology and why free-agent activity seems to be picking up, analyzing the implications of a busy non-tender deadline day and the expectations-exceeding signings of Drew Pomeranz, Mike Moustakas, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, José Abreu, and others, as well as changes in how teams evaluate players and the benefits of playing possum. Then they answer listener emails about an ownership spending conspiracy and how good Mike Trout would be if baseball were the world’s only sport, plus a Stat Blast about the Mets’ extreme 9th-inning woes and an observation about Dylan Bundy and Jurickson Profar. Topics * Are owners spend more to quiet collusion rumors? * Playing possum * Upcoming CBA negotiations * Worst innings for team pitchers * 2019 Mets' ninth inning pitching struggles * Mike Trout and the global baseball player pool Intro The Hold Steady, "The Stove & the Toaster" Outro The Mountain Goats, "Whole Wide World" Banter * Jen Ramos, a baseball writer and analyst (among many other things) was critically injured in an accident caused by a drunk driver. Jen's husband, Josh Eisen, died in the accident. Sam reads details from a GoFundMe page set up to support Jen's recovery and reminds listeners to never drink and drive. Jen previously appeared in Episodes 821 and 1031. Jen was the Assistant GM of the Sonoma Stompers in 2017. * With the recent free agent signings Ben and Sam discuss the origins of 'hot stove' in the baseball lexicon. * Review of recent free agent signings and the accuracy of FanGraphs' crowdsourced contract predictions. * Free agent signings are happening earlier in the offseason compared to last year, contrasting with a record number (55) of players that were non-tendered. * Sam remarks on the fact that players are "getting their years" again and many multi-year deals are being signed. They go over the specific example of Mike Moustakas getting a multi-year deal when he hadn't in previous seasons. * Ben and Sam continue to discuss the reasons for why players might be getting more multi-year contracts and why teams are more willing to spend. Eventually Sam interrupts and says, "Don't talk anymore!" because he plans to write about it. Email Questions * Eric: "A question that may be a bit too conspiracy theory-related: with the rash of FA signings (based on Hamels getting $18M!!!), are the owners purposefully spending more to squash the rumored collusion? Or is this just like any other offseason?" * Alex: "This question might be too hypothetical to even think about, but I hope that I can get some semblance of an answer. Imagine there's a supreme international law that makes everyone play baseball and everyone starts with equal access to the sport. In this hypothetical, how good would Mike Trout be relative to the whole world? Would he still be among the best 10, best 100 players? Statistically, he probably wouldn't keep his number 1 spot. I'm also assuming that the MLB is the only professional league. I know it is unanswerable, but I hope to gain some insight into what it means to be the best in the world at a sport." Stat Blast * Sam examines the worst innings for team pitching staffs, as measured by tOPS+. * In part due to smaller sample sizes, extra innings are the worst for team pitching staffs. The first inning is the worst of innings 1-9. * In Episode 245 Ben and Sam answered an email about offensive production per inning. League-wide OPS was highest in the first inning. * The Mets pitching staff had a tOPS+ of 142 during the ninth inning in 2019, meaning they were 42% worse when compared to other innings. * Sam finds that this is the worst inning for a staff this century. * In 2019 Jacob deGrom pitched just once in the ninth inning. He gave up two home runs to the three batters he faced for a tOPS+ of 985. Sam cannot find any split worse that isn't infinite. Notes * Sam's dad's dog caught a possum and appeared to have killed it. His dad put the possum in a garbage can but the next morning found the lid open and the possum gone. Possums can shut their entire body down for hours at a time and appear to be dead. * Ben and Sam offer a few ideas about the recent wave of multi-year deals after previously slow offseasons. Sam says owners might be more OK to issue longer deals with the expectation that a work stoppage might save some money. Ben proposes that enough teams are finally ready to spend after withholding in the previous offseasons. * Sam guesses that if baseball had an equal-access global player pool Mike Trout would be the 19th best player. Ben isn't convinced Trout would even crack the top 100. Both marvel at the size and strength of football players. * In Episode 802 and Episode 910 Ben and Sam discussed similar topics around the potential baseball skill of people who had never played the game or were undiscovered. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1465: Free Agency's Second Wind * GoFundMe page for Jen Ramos * Zack Wheeler is Good, But Not as Good as He Could Be by Ben Clemens * The Phillies Get a New Set of Wheels by Dan Szymborski * Reds Go Big With Mike Moustakas by Craig Edwards * Moustakas' Moose Tracks: What Does His Deal Tell Us About the Market? by Ginny Searle * Five Lessons From the Wild Non-Tender Deadline by Craig Edwards * Money to Spend: What's the Likely State of Team Payrolls in 2020? by Craig Edwards * Power Starts Shifting Back to Players by Tyler Kepner Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes